Teams to target: Chelsea, Manchester City
Chelsea vs. Nottingham Forest
Were they good because they played Luton Town, or was their performance a sign of things to come under Mauricio Pochettino? Answer: Probably somewhere in the middle.
Encouragingly for the Blues, they’ve under performed their XG this season despite scoring five goals. They’ve also perhaps been unlucky to concede four goals, looking very comfortable in the win over Luton in GW3.
Raheem Sterling rolled back the years with a 19 point haul last week and he’s a lock in a GW4 dream team.
Nottingham Forest fans have a lot to be encouraged with and they were unlucky to come away from trips to the Emirates and Old Trafford with zero points.
As a result a double up on Chelsea would be enough for me on a free hit this week, with Ben Chilwell the second selection.
Manchester City vs. Fulham
The early signs are ominous for rivals of Manchester City, with the champions the only side to claim nine points from nine so far.
They needed a late Rodri winner against Sheffield United last week, but on another day they could have racked up a cricket score.
Erling Haaland has just six points in his last two matches, with a missed penalty at Bramall Lane costing him a haul in GW3.
He will again be the most captained player this week and he’s a lock for a GW4 free hit.
Manchester City have the best defensive stats this season, conceding just 1.33XG in their first three games. As a result Ruben Dias would be the second pick, with a defensive option a must in a free hit side.
I’d definitely have a full City contingent if I was free hitting this week, with Fulham’s 9.29 XGA the highest in the Premier League so far.
Given the numerous midfield options this week, I’m inclined not to select Phil Foden, with the Julian Alvarez perhaps the better option.
Opposition to target: Luton Town, Manchester United
Luton Town vs. West Ham United
Perhaps it’s a tad harsh on Luton given the level of opposition they’ve faced, but they look comfortably short of what is required to survive in the Premier League.
Only Fulham have conceded a higher XG than Luton and the Hatters have played a game less with their GW2 fixture against Burnley cancelled.
A first home game in the top flight since 1991 will be a monumental occasion for players and supporters alike; however it’s hard to look past an away win.
West Ham United have started the season strong, sitting second having won two of their opening three games and a double up for a trip to Kenilworth Road appears the best option.
Jarrod Bowen has three returns in as many games and he appears the main lock in the side, whilst budget goalkeeper Alphonse Areola is the route into defence.
Arsenal vs. Manchester United
Six points from nine is far from an awful start from Manchester United, but performances haven’t been great and the atmosphere around the club is negative.
They will travel to the Emirates without numerous defensive options, including Raphael Varane and Luke Shaw, which will likely result in Diogo Dalot starting out of position.
Manchester United had a decent 22-23 season, but their away record against the better sides was awful, claiming just one point from a possible 24 against sides in the top nine.
Arsenal sit just a point above United, however it’s hard to look past a comfortable win for the Gunners here.
Bukayo Saka was back on penalties in GW3 and he remains the best Arsenal pick.
Other options
Brentford vs. Bournemouth
Bryan Mbeumo may have blanked in GW3 but he remains an excellent pick and he’d be a lock in any free hit side this week.
Three goals in his first three games, on penalties and an OOP pick, what more could there be to like.
Bournemouth have just one point this season, although can consider themselves slightly unlucky not to have recorded more.
As a result just Mbeumo feels enough for this one in a free hit side, although Rico Henry is a good route into their defence.
Burnley vs. Tottenham
Despite exiting the Carabao Cup midweek, the atmosphere at Tottenham is a positive one following a good start to life under Ange Postecoglou.
Supporters chanted “we’ve got our Tottenham back” during their 2-0 win at Bournemouth in GW3 and few can say their approach under the Aussie isn’t easy on the eye.
James Maddison has made an excellent start to his Tottenham career and appears another lock in a free hit team for GW4.
Defensively Destiny Udogie appears the best bet and at £4.6m he’s a superb budget option.
GW4 Dream Team: Areola; Dias, Chilwell, Udogie; Mbeumo, Maddison, Sterling, Saka, Bowen; Haaland (C), Alvarez
